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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09BERLIN1271, WESTERWELLE FIRM ON REMOVAL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09BERLIN1271 | 2009-10-09 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Berlin

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHRL #1271/01 2821248
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 091248Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5455
    INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001271

    NOFORN

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2019
    TAGS: PREL PGOV MNUC MARR GM
    SUBJECT: WESTERWELLE FIRM ON REMOVAL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
    FROM GERMANY IN COALITION NEGOTIATIONS

    REF: A. BERLIN 1162
         ¶B. BERLIN 1241

    Classified By: Political Minister Counselor George Glass for reasons 1.
    4 (b,d).

    ¶1.  (C//NF) Summary: A well-placed FDP source said that on
    the first day of coalition negotiations (October 5) between
    the CDU, CSU and the FDP, FDP leader Westerwelle argued for
    the removal of the remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons
    from German soil.  Interior Minister Schaeuble (CDU) asserted
    that the weapons serve as a deterrent.  Other foreign policy
    issues discussed included support for Afghanistan and
    Turkey's accession to the EU.  Source said that Chancellor
    Merkel (CDU) may push to complete the negotiations by October
    18, but noted that the FDP is in no hurry.  He provided
    Emboffs with a list of the membership of the negotiations
    plenary and working groups as well as timetable.  Cabinet
    composition will only be decided at the end of coalition
    negotiations.  End summary.

    Westerwelle Firm on Removal of Nuclear Weapons
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶2.  (C//NF) Formal coalition negotiations between Guido
    Westerwelle's Free Democratic Party (FDP), Chancellor
    Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian
    Social Union (CSU) on a coalition agreement began on October
    ¶5.  FDP strategist shared with Emboffs and visiting Senior
    Germany Desk Officer October 7 information on issues
    discussed during the first two days of these negotiations as
    well as the negotiations schedule and working group make-up.
    Source serves as his party's notetaker for the negotiations
    and has been a long-standing close Embassy contact.

    ¶3.  (C//NF) Source said that on October 5 negotiations
    included discussion on arms control in general and removal of
    the remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons from German soil.
     He said that Federal Interior Minister Schaeuble argued that
    the weapons serve as a deterrent to Iran.  (Note: Regarding
    Schaeuble, source commented that he is "neurotic" in that he
    sees threats everywhere.  He questioned whether Schaeuble's
    influence is as great as it once was and whether he will stay
    in his position.  End note.)  According to source,
    Westerwelle asserted that nuclear weapons on German soil do
    not serve as a deterrent against Iran since they could not
    reach Iran.  He said that Westerwelle underlined that
    President Obama is moving forward toward a "nuclear-free
    world" and that he wants Germany to be in the lead.  Source
    said that Chancellor Merkel quipped in response that Germany
    is not that important in this regard -- the world would
    hardly take notice if there were action on this matter.
    According to source, Merkel wanted to avoid discussion of
    this topic.  Source also said that there was criticism of
    Social Democratic Party Foreign Minister Steinmeier that he
    did not respond adequately to President Obama's Prague speech
    in which he discussed arms control.  In response to Poloff
    query, source said that the issue of removal of nuclear
    weapons is very important to Westerwelle and that he could
    well seek to include something specific in the coalition
    agreement.

    Turkey's EU Membership; Afghanistan; Transatlantic Relations
    --------------------------------------------- ---------------

    ¶4.  (C//NF) Source said that Turkey's accession to the EU was
    also discussed, with general agreement that Turkey is not
    ready for membership and could not fulfill membership
    criteria.  Source said that there was agreement that no
    decision would have to be reached on this issue within the
    next four years in any case.  Westerwelle also spoke against
    any type of automatic decision in favor of membership for
    Turkey.  There was also general agreement that the EU is not
    ready for new members at this time beyond Croatia.

    ¶5.  (C//NF) Afghanistan was also an issue, but source only
    noted that there was general agreement on the need to
    continue efforts in Afghanistan.  Source also stressed that
    the three parties support strong transatlantic relations and
    continuity in foreign policy.

    The Devil's in the Details; What's the Rush?
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (C//NF) Source assessed some differences in Merkel's and
    Westerwelle's approach to the negotiations, although he also
    noted that the atmosphere was "very friendly and relaxed."
    He observed that Merkel preferred less detail and more
    general provisions, whereas Westerwelle was interested in a

    detailed agreement that would guide the coalition over the
    next four years.  In addition, source noted that Merkel is
    trying to push the negotiations along since she would like to
    have the new government in place before she travels to
    Washington in early November and before the EU summit at the
    end of October.  Source indicated that Westerwelle might try
    to use Merkel's desire for speed to his advantage in the
    negotiations.  While he did not indicate that the FDP would
    prolong negotiations intentionally, he noted that the FDP was
    in no hurry to complete them.

    Ministries Divided Among Parties Last
    -------------------------------------

    ¶7. (C//NF)  Regarding the possible make-up of the cabinet,
    source said that no decisions will be made until the end of
    coalition negotiations and that the current membership of
    working groups should not be seen as an indication of who
    will end up in which ministry (see ref B).  Source also said
    that the coalition agreement may only say which ministerial
    posts go to which coalition parties, without any names being
    given.  The names would only be provided later, perhaps after
    the Chancellor is voted in by the Bundestag.  Source noted
    that only two positions are certain: Angela Merkel will be
    Chancellor and Guido Westerwelle will be Vice Chancellor.  He
    added that Westerwelle will most likely also become the next
    foreign minister.  He then commented that during October 5
    negotiations, Economics Minister zu Guttenberg demonstrated
    his interest in foreign policy and Hermann Otto Solms (FDP)
    showed he could play an increasingly important role in the
    financial area.  Source provided Emboffs with the names of
    those serving in the plenary rounds of the negotiations and a
    schedule of when those rounds will take place.

    --Plenary Members from the CDU: Chancellor Merkel, Interior
    Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, Chancellery Chief Thomas de
    Maziere, Education Minister Annette Shavan, CDU/CSU Caucus
    Chief Volker Kauder, CDU General Secretary Ronald Pofalla,
    Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) Juergen
    Ruettgers, Minister President of Hesse Roland Koch, Minister
    President of Lower Saxony Christian Wulff.

    --Plenary Members from the CSU: Minister President of Bavaria
    and CSU Chair Horst Seehofer, Economics Minister Karl-Theodor
    zu Guttenberg, Head of CSU Bundestag group Peter Ramsauer,
    CSU Secretary General Alexander Dobrindt, Bavaria State
    Parliament President Barbara Stamm, Bavaria Plenipotentiary
    Markus Soeder, Bavaria Finance Minister Georg Fahrenschon,
    Bavaria Justice Minister Beate Merk.

    --Plenary Members from the FDP: Party Chair Guido
    Westerwelle, FDP Secretary General Dirk Niebel, Bundestag
    Vice President Hermann Otto Solms, FDP Deputy Caucus
    Chairperson Birgit Homburger, Lower Saxony Minister for
    Economics Philipp Roesler, FDP deputy chair Rainer Bruederle,
    Deputy Minister President for NRW Andreas Pinkwart, Deputy
    Chairperson Bundestag Education Committee Cornelia Pieper,
    Bavaria State Chairperson Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶8.  (C//NF) Westerwelle has made the removal of nuclear
    weapons from Germany one of his flagship issues in the
    foreign policy arena and has raised this in various fora in
    the past.  It is not clear how hard he will push to have a
    specific provision on this included in the coalition
    agreement.  Judging by source's description of the
    discussion, Merkel would rather have a more general provision
    regarding disarmament included and preferred to avoid
    prolonged discussion on this issue.

    ¶9.  (C//NF) The CDU/CSU is the only party that still supports
    German participation in the NATO nuclear share and the
    deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Germany.  While the
    CDU/CSU leadership is willing to fight for the current
    policy, it is concerned that the ongoing Nuclear Posture
    Review could significantly change U.S. policy on the
    deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Europe,
    putting it at a significant political disadvantage vis-a-vis
    the rest of the German political establishment.  In fact,
    senior Chancellery officials have already requested that they
    be pre-notified about any possible change in U.S. policy (ref
    C).  We expect that in these coalition negotiations, the
    CDU/CSU may hedge their bets against a possible U.S. policy
    change by agreeing to language that commits the next
    government to seek consultations on this issue at NATO, with
    the caveat that any decision must be made by the Alliance as

    a whole and must take account of the large number of Russian
    non-strategic nuclear weapons oriented against NATO member
    states.  Post will seek meetings with source after the
    plenary negotiation rounds to see if additional readouts are
    possible.

    ¶10.  (C//NF) FDP source is a young, up-and-coming party
    loyalist, who has offered Emboffs internal party documents in
    the past.  Excited with his role as FDP negotiations
    notetaker, he seemed happy to share his observations and
    insights and read to us directly from his notes.  He also
    provided copies of documents from his "negotiations" binder.
    Murphy

`