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### Viewing cable 09ABUDHABI347, ABU DHABI CROWN PRINCE REITERATES IRAN CONCERNS FOR S/SRAP

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09ABUDHABI347 | 2009-04-05 12:12 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Abu Dhabi

`

    VZCZCXRO9925
    OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
    DE RUEHAD #0347 0951254
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 051254Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2332
    INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0644

` `

    S E C R E T ABU DHABI 000347

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    FOR S, S/SRAP HOLBROOKE AND S/SAGSWA ROSS
    DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARP AND NEA/IR

    E.O. 12958: 03/24/2019
    TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL PARM MOPS IR AF PK AE
    SUBJECT: ABU DHABI CROWN PRINCE REITERATES IRAN CONCERNS FOR S/SRAP
    HOLBROOKE

    CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RICHARD G. OLSON FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.

    ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: During a March 24 meeting with Special
    Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, Abu
    Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) expressed his grave
    concerns about the Iranian threat to the region.  MbZ said the
    Iranian response to the Nowruz message was primarily for domestic
    consumption, but that the Iranian leadership is concerned that
    dialogue with the West represents a regime threat.  He said Iran
    would obtain a nuclear weapon unless the regime could be "split from
    inside" before nuclear capability was achieved.  Foreign Minister
    Abdullah bin Zayed argued for continued Gulf consultation in
    conjunction with any U.S. efforts to engage Iran.  (Other topics
    reported septel.)  End Summary.

    NOWRUZ STATEMENT
    ----------------

    ¶2. (S/NF) MbZ began by telling Amb. Holbrooke that Khamenei's
    response to President's Nowruz statement was designed to send a
    message to the millions of Iranians who saw the statement on the
    Internet that there will be no debate on engagement with the United
    States and/or the West.  MbZ opined that Khamenei had to deliver the
    message personally as an Ahmedinejad response would have fueled
    domestic debate.  Commenting that Khamenei was conveying Iran's
    fundamental lack of trust in the United States, MbZ said the Iranians
    want an apology "for everything from Carter to Bush."  He added that
    the uncharacteristic speed of Khamenei's response indicates the
    extent of the perceived threat that improved relations with the West
    might represent to the leadership's control over the country.
    Specifically, the Iranian regime fears the United States will demand
    the renunciation of its nuclear program, which would be politically
    impossible.

    NUCLEAR WEAPONS A CERTAINTY, UNLESS REGIME FALLS
    --------------------------------------------- ---

    ¶3. (S/NF) MbZ told Holbrooke he was "100 percent" convinced Iran will
    complete its nuclear weapons program.  He candidly stated his
    personal belief that negotiations with Iran were irrelevant and a
    military solution would only delay the program, not derail it.  MbZ
    said that there was a "third way" between these unacceptable options:
     Iran is domestically very fragile, and the only way to prevent it
    from acquiring nuclear weapons was to "split them from inside."

    ¶4. (S/NF) Turning to his concerns about an armed confrontation, MbZ
    said war with Iran would only harm the UAE.  He is deeply concerned
    that the current Israeli government will initiate military action
    without consultation.  An Israeli attack on Iran would have little
    impact on Iran's capabilities, but MbZ was certain Iran would
    respond.  MbZ argued that the leadership believes its own lies, which
    were "proven" by Iran's success in Basra.  Today's conventional
    Iranian weapons would target the Gulf, while Iran continues to expand
    its missile program with the hope of reaching the West.

    CONSULT US
    ----------

    ¶5. (S/NF) UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan
    (AbZ) stressed the importance of a continuation of the P5 plus 1 plus
    GCC plus 3 coordination on Iran.  AbZ said that such consultation in
    2008 "agitated" Iran, but sent a message to Russia and China and
    European allies that the Gulf is seriously concerned about Iranian
    hegemony.  Iran's regional hegemony and nuclear program are two
    issues that the West cannot tackle separately.  AbZ noted that
    countries in the region ("some friends") are concerned that the
    United States, especially under the current administration, would
    engage Iran at the expense of ties with the region.  AbZ said the
    President's Nowruz message supported this theory.  He concluded, "The
    more you engage Iran, the more you must engage the Gulf states."
    (Ambassador Olson's comment:  Abdullah's reference to "friends" was
    Emirati politesse - the UAE is deeply concerned that we are preparing
    to trade, and is interpreting the Nowruz greeting in that way.)

    ¶6. (SBU) Ambassador Holbrooke has cleared this message.
    OLSON

`