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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09PARIS1254, A/S GORDON'S MEETINGS WITH POLICY-MAKERS IN PARIS:

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09PARIS1254 | 2009-09-16 07:07 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Paris

`

    VZCZCXRO6701
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL
    DE RUEHFR #1254/01 2590734
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 160734Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7146
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0881
    RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 001254

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018
    TAGS: PREL PARM KNNP BH SM MK GR FR
    SUBJECT: A/S GORDON'S MEETINGS WITH POLICY-MAKERS IN PARIS:
    A TOUR D'HORIZON OF EUROPE AND AFGHANISTAN

    Classified By: Ambassador Charles Rivkin, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

    ¶1.  (S) Summary.  During Assistant Secretary Gordon's visit
    to Paris on September 11, he met with a number of French
    policy-makers including: Elysee Diplomatic Advisors
    Jean-David Levitte, Damien Loras, and Francois Richier,
    Assistant Secretary equivalent for Continental Europe Roland
    Galharague, and Acting Director of MFA Strategic Affairs
    bureau Jean-Hugues Simon-Michel.  Discussions focused on
    Russia, upcoming developments in the Balkans (Bosnia,
    Croatia, Macedonia and Kosovo), elections in Germany and
    Afghanistan, Turkey's EU Accession, NATO Enlargement and
    Strategic Concept, and Georgia and Ukraine.  End Summary.

    -------------------------------------
    AFGHANISTAN: A MAJOR PRIORITY
    -------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (C) Jean-David Levitte noted that while public opinion in
    France is opposed to the war in Afghanistan, the situation
    here is much calmer than in the UK, Germany, or Italy.
    Angela Merkel's domestic political situation after the
    incident in Kunduz was particularly fragile, so that was part
    of the rationale behind the recent German-French-UK letter to
    UN SYG Ban Ki Moon to propose an international conference on
    Afghanistan by the end of the year.  Levitte said that the
    goal of the conference would be to accelerate and improve the
    training of Afghan troops and police and to strengthen Afghan
    state institutions, which will help reinforce the importance
    of the international effort to skeptical publics.  They are
    now waiting for Ban Ki Moon's response.  Levitte emphasized
    that France remains "totally engaged" in Afghanistan with no
    limits or caveats on its troops.  This autumn, France will
    complete a transfer of troops from Kabul to Kapisa and Surobi
    provinces (a presence that will be reinforced on the ground
    as France reassigns some sailors to other regional activities
    and replaces them with ground troops).  A/S Gordon assured
    Levitte that the U.S. would soon be able to share the
    elements of the McChrystal military review with Allies.
    Levitte responded by praising General McChrystal and saying
    that French forces have an excellent dialogue with him on the
    ground.  He added that Germany and the UK are determined to
    stay in Afghanistan as needed, but we may need to convince
    the Netherlands to remain, and that President Sarkozy had
    recently reinforced this message in a meeting with Dutch PM
    Balkenende.

    -------------------------------------------
    BOSNIA: FRENCH URGE TRANFER TO EU AUTHORITY
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶3.  (C) Levitte noted that of the five major conditions
    required to transfer authority in Bosnia from the UN High
    Representative to an EU High Representative, four have been
    fulfilled, and only the question of division of state
    property remains.  This final condition should not alone
    "block all progress," especially as the current UN team in
    Bosnia is no longer effective.  France wants to see the
    transfer of authority to a new EU team in November, as the
    rapprochement to Europe is an effective "carrot" to encourage
    the Bosniaks to continue progress in necessary reforms.  A/S
    Gordon agreed that the current system is not working well,
    but noted that the international community will lose
    credibility if we move forward before all the necessary
    pre-conditions have been fulfilled.  He added that the U.S.
    agrees that some form of carrot is necessary to urge Bosnian
    compliance.  Levitte noted that they still have two months to
    urge Bosnian progress before a final decision is made.  In a
    separate meeting, Assistant Secretary equivalent for
    Continental Europe Roland Galharague said that "transition is
    the number one objective," suggested the division of state
    property will take much time to resolve, and urged the U.S.
    to support early transfer of authority that would open the
    door to Bosnian aspirations for greater integration into EU
    institutions.  He noted that the growing perception of
    divisions between the US and Bosniaks on one side who favored
    retaining the UN role and the EU and Serbs on the other
    created unhelpful opportunities for manipulation.  A/S Gordon
    said this perception was inaccurate, but noted the U.S. is
    sensitive to the political need for Bosniak leaders to sell
    this decision to their publics.  The USG needs to see a clear
    path ahead for transition in order to support it.

    -----------------------------------------
    KOSOVO AND SERBIA
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (C) Levitte noted that the EULEX mission is having
    diplomatic problems with the Kosovar government and public

    PARIS 00001254  002 OF 004

    after signing two technical protocols with Serbia.  They are
    hoping to ensure continued calm as Kosovo heads into
    municipal elections.  A/S Gordon stated that the Kosovars
    will have to accept the protocols but that it should be
    clearly explained that these are technical agreements that
    have no impact on Kosovo's independent status.  Levitte also
    criticized Serbian FM Jeremic, saying that he is doing
    nothing to encourage Serb return or participation in Kosovo's
    government.  Levitte noted that Jeremic "makes big promises"
    every time he comes to France, but doesn't follow through.
    Levitte no longer meets with him and does not consider him to
    be the "modern face of Belgrade" that he purports to be.

    -----------------------------------------
    MACEDONIA AND CROATIA
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (C) Levitte expressed optimism that a new Greek
    government would be "more solid" and allow greater
    flexibility for progress in the Greek-Macedonian name
    dispute.  A/S Gordon agreed that either a more solid
    Conservative government or a Socialist government would be a
    stronger, more flexible partner in the negotiations.  He
    expressed hope that if the international community could
    convince Macedonia to abandon the idea of a referendum and
    get Greece to abandon the necessity of changing passports,
    then progress could be made.  On Croatia, Levitte observed
    that the border issue with Slovenia is making progress.  He
    hoped that the upcoming September elections in Germany would
    also allow the new German government to be more open to EU
    enlargement to include the Balkan countries.  Paris wants the
    door to enlargement to remain open, even if the accession
    process takes time.

    ----------------------------------------
    CONCERNS ABOUT TURKEY
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (C) Levitte informed A/S Gordon that there had been no
    change in the French position advocating a "privileged
    partnership" between the European Union and Turkey, in lieu
    of EU membership.  However, he emphasized that France was not
    preventing accession negotiations from progressing on all the
    EU chapters that do not pre-suppose membership.  There remain
    plenty of chapters of the acquis to open, so if progress is
    not being made, the fault lies with Turkish intransigence on
    Cyprus.  Unfortunately, Ankara is not completing the required
    necessary reforms and progress has stalled.  Levitte
    anticipated a negative report this fall on Turkey's failure
    to fulfill the Ankara Protocol.  A/S Gordon said that Turkey
    was caught in a vicious cycle and it is not completing
    necessary reforms because the Turks do not believe that their
    EU candidacy will be allowed to progress, and at the same
    time, their negotiations are not progressing because they
    aren't completing the required reforms.  He noted that in the
    latest German Marshall Fund polls in Turkey, fewer that 30%
    of the Turkish public believes they will succeed in getting
    EU membership.

    ¶7.  (C) Levitte agreed, but noted that Paris hopes that it
    will be the Turks themselves who realize that their role is
    best played as a bridge between the two worlds of Europe and
    Asia, rather than anchored in Europe itself.  He stated that
    Turkey is in a difficult position as it wants to enter the EU
    but has refused to accept one of the other EU member states.
    Levitte predicted that a worse case scenario would be if
    Turkey finally manages to complete the acquis and end
    negotiations and a public referendum is held in France which
    is finally opposed to their membership.  Despite all of these
    problems, Levitte claimed that President Sarkozy is a friend
    of Turkey and has visited the country at least 10 times in
    his life.

    -----------------------------------------
    RUSSIA AND GEORGIA
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶8.  (C)  A/S Gordon described the challenges and frustrations
    of the U.S.- Russia relationship, which is based on finding
    areas where we can work together on our common interest.  He
    noted progress at the July summit meeting on such issues as
    START talks and transfer of lethal material through Russia to
    Afghanistan.  Galharague described Russia as a state with the
    trappings of democracy but without any mechanisms for the
    public to influence government decision-making.  "The root of
    the problem is the regime," he said.  Presidential advisor
    Loras added Russian leaders lacked sufficient, long-range
    vision for their country and instead, focused on a six-month
    time horizon and their business interests.  Galharague

    PARIS 00001254  003 OF 004

    described the French strategy as finding a balance between
    treating Russia as if it is too important or treating it like
    an enemy. The French observed that some in Russia have
    concluded their interests are served by keeping the west
    "tied down in an Afghanistan quagmire" and by sustaining the
    status quo in Iran.  He elaborated that a solution that
    thwarts Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions and restores Iran as
    a normal member of the international community could
    undermine Russian regional and energy interests.  Loras noted
    of late the Russians have been unhelpful on Iran.   Moreover,
    they appear to have concluded they can pocket a projected
    U.S. decision to scale back or abandon the Bush
    administration's Missile Defense initiative without paying
    any cost.

    ¶9.  (C) Looking ahead on the energy front, Loras predicted
    that substantial Russian under-investment in energy
    extraction infrastructure was such that Russia would not be
    able to meet European demand in four or five years.  He
    observed this created an opportunity for Russia to have even
    more leverage over a Europe that has not prepared to
    diversify its energy supplies. In response to a question on
    Russia's decision to suspend negotiations on World Trade
    Organization membership in favor of a customs union with
    Kazakhstan and Belarus,  A/S Gordon replied the U.S. would
    continue a policy review on Missile Defense to take the right
    decision based on the merits.   On Russian actions regarding
    the WTO, he said that Moscow's decision was likely supported
    by Russians whose interests were not advanced by opening
    markets.  Galharague observed that failure to advance WTO
    membership for Russia had negative implications for
    EU-Russian trade relations as progress in this EU effort
    pre-supposed progress on Russian accession to the WTO. Loras
    reported the coming year will involve substantial
    Franco-Russian interactions.  This engagement would include a
    visit by French Prime Minister Fillon to Russia in September,
    a visit to France by Putin in November, a state visit to
    France by Medvedev in March, and a Sarkozy visit to Russia in
    2010 on the margins of the St. Petersburg forum.  These
    visits would occur under the auspices of reciprocal "Year of
    France" events in Russia and "Year of Russia" events in
    France.

    ¶10.  (C) Levitte and A/S Gordon discussed the "dangerous"
    precedent of ships being intercepted in Georgian waters.
    Sarkozy Advisor Damien Loras noted that President Saakashvili
    has a French advisor who has informed Paris that Georgian
    ships have orders to respond if fired upon.  This can
    escalate and the French message has been to emphasize that
    Georgia must not respond to provocation, as that would only
    play into Russia's hands.  Levitte stressed the importance of
    maintaining the Geneva process, while noting that it may take
    a generation before the Russian public will be able to accept
    their loss of influence, from Poland and the Baltics to
    Ukraine and Georgia.  Unfortunately, the Russian tendency is
    to view "good neighbors" as totally submissive subordinates.
    On the other hand, Paris is closely watching Medvedev, who is
    more frequently taking public stances in opposition to Putin.
     Medvedev is more open to the occidental powers and more open
    to modernization and rule of law issues that Russia must
    face.  A/S Gordon observed that President Obama had spent a
    good deal of time with Medvedev on his trip to Russia, and
    had specifically targeted Russian youth in his public
    outreach event.  In his meeting with Galharague and others,
    A/S Gordon noted that the U.S. pursues a policy to support
    Georgia in the face of Russian pressure without encouraging
    President Saakashvili to act in ways that are unhelpful.

    -----------------------------------------
    IRAN: NEXT STEPS
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶11.  (S/NF)  Levitte noted that the Iranian response to the
    overture of President Obama and the West was "a farce,"
    although Russia had received it as a real initiative.  The
    current Iranian regime is effectively a fascist state and the
    time has come to decide on next steps.  Levitte stated that
    this is why Paris is advocating a meeting of the EU3 PLUS 3
    on the margins of the Pittsburgh G20 meeting.  The French
    hope to approve a two-paragraph statement laying out next
    steps on negotiations or sanctions.  He noted that German
    Chancellor Angela Merkel shares the view of the French
    President and is willing to be firm on sanctions, but that FM
    Steinmeier was more cautious.  The Iranian regime must
    understand that it will be more threatened by economic harm
    and the attendant social unrest than it would be by
    negotiating with the West.  Unfortunately, the P-3 cannot
    remain passive until Russia and China finally lose patience;

    PARIS 00001254  004 OF 004

    this is why a high-level political meeting is important to
    advance this discussion (and Levitte cited President
    Sarkozy's frank and direct style, saying that he would
    pinpoint Medvedev to explain his position).  Levitte said
    that he informed the Chinese FM that if they delay until a
    possible Israeli raid, then the world will have to deal with
    a catastrophic energy crisis as well.  At the same time, the
    debate over stopping the flow of gasoline into Iran will be
    very sensitive and would have to take into account which
    countries would be only too willing to step in and replace
    European companies.  Levitte informed us that they would like
    President Sarkozy to talk to President Obama by telephone in
    the coming days to discuss the G20 and Iran.  The French are
    proposing two possible windows to schedule the call.

    ----------------------------------------
    NATO'S ENLARGEMENT AND STRATEGIC CONCEPT
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶12.  (C) Levitte said that France was very pleased with the
    selection of Madeleine Albright to chair the "Group of 12,"
    which will launch the process of reviewing NATO's Strategic
    Concept.  Bruno Racine will be the French participant on the
    panel, and Levitte stressed that there is already strong
    agreement between France and the United States on the basis
    of exchanges that he has had with NSA General Jim Jones.
    Levitte noted that Paris agreed with Jones on suppressing the
    Membership Action Plan (MAP), which had become an obstacle
    rather than an incentive.  A/S Gordon responded that we must
    not change the process in a way that would be interpreted as
    suggesting an end to NATO enlargement and eliminating MAP
    might do that.  Levitte agreed and added that French
    President Sarkozy was "convinced" that Ukraine would one day
    be a member of NATO, but that there was no point in rushing
    the process and antagonizing Russia, particularly if the
    Ukrainian public was largely against membership.  The
    Bucharest summit declaration was very clear that NATO has an
    open door and Ukraine and Georgia have a vocation in NATO
    (even if Georgia remains very unstable at the moment).
    Levitte added that Paris was very pleased with the ceremony
    on September 9 transferring the Allied Command Transformation
    (ACT) to French General Stephane Abrial.

    --------------------------------
    VENEZUELA
    --------------------------------

    ¶13.  (C) Levitte observed that Venezuelan President Hugo
    Chavez is "crazy" and said that even Brazil wasn't able to
    support him anymore.  Unfortunately, Chavez is taking one of
    the richest countries in Latin America and turning it into
    another Zimbabwe.

    ¶14.  (U) Assistant Secretary Gordon has cleared this message.
    RIVKIN

`