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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09BERLIN1296, GERMANY COULD HAVE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT WITHIN

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09BERLIN1296 | 2009-10-16 15:03 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Berlin

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHRL #1296/01 2891501
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161501Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5511
    INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001296

    NOFORN

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL
    SUBJECT: GERMANY COULD HAVE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT WITHIN
    TWO WEEKS

    REF: BERLIN 1271

    Classified By: Political Minister Counselor George Glass for reasons 1.
    4 (b,d).

    ¶1.  (C//NF) Summary: A well-placed Free Democratic Party
    (FDP) source told Emboffs October 15 that Chancellor Angela
    Merkel aims to finish coalition negotiations between her
    Christian Democratic Union, the Christian Social Union, and
    the FDP by October 18, but that the FDP viewed a completion
    of October 23 to be more feasible.  Either date would allow
    the parties to hold conventions to approve the agreement
    during the following days and enable the Bundestag to elect
    Angela Merkel Chancellor on October 28, one day after the
    first scheduled meeting of the new Bundestag.  FDP source
    said that in any case, the virtually certain future Foreign
    Minister Guido Westerwelle would want to do the Chancellor
    "the favor" of ensuring her election before her upcoming
    visit to Washington on November 2.  A worst case scenario --
    and least likely -- is that she would be elected by November
    8, source said, just prior to the November 9 fall of the Wall
    anniversary.  Source provided Emboffs with a list of the 15
    mostly domestic-oriented points included in the FDP campaign
    platform that it wants to see included in the coalition
    agreement, including withdrawal of the remaining
    non-strategic nuclear weapons from German soil, the only one
    addressing foreign policy (reftel).  End summary.

    ¶2.  (C//NF) Source provided Emboffs with a schedule of the
    next days of the coalition negotiations.  The schedule showed
    that the various working groups of the negotiations would
    each report to the plenary (see reftel) October 16-17, with a
    smaller group of the plenary then meeting on October 17 to
    iron out disputed issues and beginning discussions on
    division of the ministerial portfolios between the parties.
    Chancellor Merkel, source said, hopes to wrap up the
    coalition negotiations on October 18 after a full-day plenary
    session, a goal he described as "very ambitious but
    possible."  Source noted that the FDP was not as optimistic
    that a conclusion could be reached as of October 18, and
    scheduled three more plenary sessions for October 21, 22 and
    ¶23.  He noted that it is feasible that a coalition agreement
    could be concluded by that date and that the three parties
    would then hold conventions to approve the agreement in the
    days following.

    ¶3.  (C//NF) This schedule would enable the Bundestag to then
    elect Merkel as Chancellor October 28, the day after its
    first plenary.  Source noted, however, that the FDP has
    alerted the party of three possible  party convention dates:
    October 25 -- if things go as plans, November 1 -- if
    negotiations are prolonged, or November 8 -- worst case
    scenario.  Source said that it would not be "unattractive"
    for Westerwelle to attend the EU Summit October 29-30.  This
    would be a good "debut" for Westerwelle, he added.  In the
    event negotiations are prolonged, source said that
    Westerwelle would like to do the Chancellor "the favor" by
    enabling her to be elected Chancellor before she travels to
    Washington November 2.

    ¶4.  (C//NF) About the actual negotiations, FDP source
    provided Emboffs with 15 points from their election platform
    that the FDP would like to see included in the coalition
    agreement.  The majority of the 15 points focus on domestic
    economic and social issues, including structural tax reform,
    amendments to the social welfare and pension systems, and
    support for education.  The points also include the goal of
    ending what is termed "unnecessary and ineffective" measures
    to censor the internet and preventing domestic military
    deployments.  The final point, and the only one that concerns
    foreign policy, calls for "entering negotiations with our
    allies" in order to achieve a withdrawal of nuclear weapons
    stationed in Germany during the next legislative term.
    (Note: In response to Emboff questions, source said that the
    goal really is to develop a plan for the withdrawal of the
    nuclear weapons.  End note.)  FDP source said that
    conscription is a disputed issue that is still under
    discussion.  Regarding Turkey's EU membership, FDP source
    said that the FDP would rather not include anything on this
    subject in the agreement, arguing that it will not be at
    issue during the next four years.

    ¶5.  (C//NF) FDP source assessed that about 85 percent of the
    issues will be decided during this coming weekend.  The FDP
    intends to keep the remaining 15 percent of the issues open
    and use them as bargaining tools for decisions on the
    division of ministerial portfolios.  Regarding portfolios,
    FDP source commented off the record that current Interior
    Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had been trying to serve as the

    CDU's "grey eminence,"  seeking to exert influence over many
    of the working groups, beyond his own working group of
    internal security.  Source said that the FDP viewed his role
    negatively, and that he was referred to within the FDP as "an
    angry old man."  He indicated that he hoped the CDU would
    also view his role as counterproductive.  Source, however,
    noted that the agreement will only state which ministerial
    portfolios each party will receive, without providing any
    names.  He stressed that it is up to each party to then
    decide who will fill those positions.

    Murphy

`