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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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### Viewing cable 09MUNICH273, GERMAN ELECTIONS: BAVARIA WINS BIG INFLUENCE IN

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Reference ID | Date | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | ---
09MUNICH273 | 2009-11-06 08:08 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Munich

`

    VZCZCXRO0861
    OO RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHMZ #0273/01 3100821
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 060821Z NOV 09
    FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4952
    INFO RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0314
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000273

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR EUR/CE, DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/ERA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN GM
    SUBJECT: GERMAN ELECTIONS: BAVARIA WINS BIG INFLUENCE IN
    THE NEW GERMAN GOVERNMENT

    REF: BERLIN 1340

    Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL CONRAD TRIBBLE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
    )

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (SBU) The Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria has
    celebrated the outcome of the federal coalition negotiations,
    which awarded the party with three ministries and several
    state secretary positions. The outcome appears to have
    reinvigorated Horst Seehofer, Bavarian Minister President and
    head of the CSU, recovering from a bout with the flu and
    worse-than-expected results in the September 27 national
    elections.  Singling out newly sworn-in Defense Minister zu
    Guttenberg for praise, Seehofer expects him to compete
    successfully for world attention with new Foreign Minister
    and FDP chairman Westerwelle.  Seehofer has signaled that he
    expects to be working with the FDP for a long time.  End
    Summary.

    CSU Thrilled with Coalition Negotiations Results
    --------------------------------------------- ---

    ¶2.  (SBU) "We could not be more satisfied with the outcome,"
    Michael Hohenberger, a senior State Chancery contact told us
    October 28, adding that "even with a better election result
    the CSU could hardly have emerged stronger in the new
    cabinet."  Although some Bavarian observers have deplored the
    fact that the CSU lost ministerial posts in financial and
    economic affairs at the Federal level, all agree that having
    Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg as Defense Minister is a very
    positive development.  A CSU party senior advisor, Christian
    Kattner, told us privately on the same day that he could
    "understand Chancellor Merkel's point in giving the Finance
    Ministry at this difficult time to an experienced man like
    (former Interior Minister) Wolfgang Schaeuble (Christian
    Democratic Union ) CDU) rather than to a young man at the
    beginning of his political career."
    ¶3.  (C) Kattner insisted that the CSU had left its mark with
    regard to substance.  M-P Seehofer had promised tax cuts,
    which are now in the works, and aid measures for farmers, for
    which he obtained an agreement on public aid amounting to 700
    million Euros.  The CDU/CSU stood united in rejecting FDP
    demands they considered too business friendly at the expense
    of social justice concerns, he said.  Bavarian Justice
    Minister Merk, who at the beginning of the coalition
    negotiations expressed concerns about FDP "weaknesses" on
    internal security and counterterrorism, told the CG October
    27 that "she was very comfortable with the results."
    Strong CSU Bavarian Line-Up in Berlin
    -------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) As for the Cabinet, in addition to zu Guttenberg at
    Defense, there is Peter Ramsauer heading the Transportation
    Ministry, where he will have national influence and a huge
    budget.  Ilse Aigner (CSU) remains Minister of Agriculture.
    Five of the the parliamentarian State Secretaries are
    Bavarian, four from the CSU r and one from the FDP.  This
    gives the CSU and Bavaria generally important influence at
    the sub-Cabinet level and sets up influential and direct
    Bavarian connections between the Bundestag and Cabinet.  In
    the Defense Ministry, well-respected Christian Schmidt
    retained his position, as did Gerd Mueller in Agriculture.
    Hartmut Koschyk moves to the Finance Ministry, providing the
    CSU with important direct influence with Minister Schaeuble.
    The 35-year old Andreas Scheuer from Passau will assist Peter
    Ramsauer at the Transportation Ministry.  The fifth Bavarian
    is Max Stadler (FDP), who will support Sabine
    Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger (FDP) at the Justice Ministry.  A
    well-respected lawyer from Passau, Stadler is an excellent
    choice and a real legal expert with American experience as a
    1993 International Visitor Program alumnus.
    Seehofer Expects Long-Term Cooperation with FDP
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶5.  (SBU) At the CSU party convention on October 26, where
    the coalition agreement was approved, MP Seehofer made clear
    that the CSU,s main rival will now be the FDP, "which no
    longer is a small party but clearly intends to become a
    people,s party," he said, predicting "they will be targeting
    the same voters as the CSU."  The CSU, he added, will have to
    act as the guardian of the little people "to ensure that

    MUNICH 00000273  002 OF 002

    social justice prevails."  Later, upon signing the coalition
    agreement in Berlin, Seehofer indicated that he intends to
    remain in the CSU leadership.  Noting that this was the
    second time he had signed an agreement with the FDP,
    following the agreement in Bavaria one year earlier, he said
    he might be able to do the same again for the third and
    fourth time in 2013.  The media jumped on this statement
    since it insinuated that Seehofer had given up hope of  the
    CSU regaining its absolute majority in the 2013 Bavarian
    state elections.  "This statement might come back to haunt
    him," one journalist commented.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶6.  (C) Bavarian leaders are strong at home and in Berlin.
    Contrary to media speculation, Horst Seehofer remains
    uncontested as CSU chairman and Bavarian Minister-President.
    Our contacts in the party, State Chancery and CSU caucus
    unanimously rejected speculation about an imminent revolt
    against his leadership, although several acknowledge there
    will be discussions of a possible change in 2011 in
    preparation for the next Bavarian election in 2013.  In the
    capital, Defense Minister zu Guttenberg will be a serious
    competitor to Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle on the
    diplomatic parquet.  In foreign and security affairs, zu
    Guttenberg is better connected in Washington, fluent in
    English, and more experienced in the key issues.  Moreover,
    his good relations with the USG, which started in Bavaria,
    extend beyond the Department of State to the Department of
    Defense and Congress, notably through the vehicle of the
    annual Munich Security Conference (next iteration February
    5-7, 2010), where he is a regular and prominent organizer and
    participant.
    TRIBBLE

`